'Are we there, yet?'

Taking your kids to the seaside is a useful exercise as it prepares them for the realities of life – the gap between expectations and ernest endeavours – so the response from one quarter to COP26 was not entirely unexpected. It is not possible to point to any concrete successes, except the use of the occasion to highlight both the outcomes from not achieving net-zero carbon or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The effect that this will have on countries on the margin, and the difficulty of meeting the targets was starkly outlined by Khadeeja Naseem, Minister of State for Environment of the Maldives who foresees the country disappearing under the Indian Ocean, and India itself, whose commitment to reach Net-zero carbon was optimistically scheduled for 2070.

The aim is, of course, to hold back the rise in global temperature to just 1.5C by the end of the century, which, if we can manage it, will hold back the worst effects of climate change. A couple of things did stand out, though – the previous lack of richer nations raising their $100Bn annual climate funding to assist vulnerable countries, and the watering down of the need to ‘move beyond coal’ because of its predominance in the industries India, China and the US. The two latter countries, though, did sign an agreement to work together on tackling climate change.

If we carry on as we are, best estimates are that we will see a 2.5C to 2.7C increase by 2100. If we stick to the promises made at COP26 we could achieve, perhaps, 1.9C and with India’s help, shave another 0.2C off that. The Global Methane Pledge (40% responsible for global warming) and the accelerated coal phase-out would give us an extra 0.1C.

Call it salami slicing if you will, but every contribution helps, and the statistics around the construction highlight the contribution of the built environment to the problem and also the steps that we can take to mitigate some of it. Hence our thanks to three contributors to this newsletter that address the problem.

David Chadwick

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